Well that went well
The off-year elections Tuesday were a spectacular success for Democrats across the country.
Governor Andy Beshear easily won re-election in Kentucky.
Rhode Island elected their first Black Representative to Congress.
Pennsylvania Democrats held a Supreme Court seat.
Ohio approved Constitutional Amendments codifying reproductive freedom and marijuana legalization.
Virginia Democrats held the Senate and flipped the House of Delegates with abortion as the main focus
All of this is a stunning rebuke of the ridiculous polls and doom and gloom predictions of the pundit class and political media. Many of us have been telling you they were wrong over and over. None of the polls matter when we keep winning elections and nothing that says ‘if the election was held tomorrow’ is true when the election isn’t for another year.
In light of this we can safely say we are heading into the 2024 election with some ideas about the mood of the electorate and what are key issues. I’ve been pounding several of them on my show and I wanted to take a look here for you in what I am calling collectively ‘Super Majority Issues.’
Super Majority Issues
What is as Super Majority Issue? These are a set of issues that Americans overwhelmingly support beyond party lines. While they are traditionally “Democratic” issues there is such strong support that they are without party affiliation. I don’t like to even call them ‘bipartisan’ because the Republican Party as an entity and their elected officials almost universally oppose these issues even as average Americans move a different direction.
Let’s look at the some of the top issues. This isn’t an exhaustive list but a good place to start.
Reproductive freedom
Reasonable gun safety
Unions and labor organizing
Reproductive Freedom: 73% Support
I think the election on Tuesday showed clearly that reproductive freedom is an issue that crosses party lines in a big way. Ohio is by all measures a pretty red state, yet the Proposition 1 passed by a whopping 57% to 43%.
In Virginia Glenn Youngkin and many pundits were positive they had found the loophole in this issue as the AP Poll cites that a large chunk of that support only supports abortion up to 6 weeks. So, he said they would have an abortion limit at 15-weeks with exceptions for rape, incest, and life of the mother. That clearly didn’t work as the Democrats flipped the House of Delegates and held the Senate.
Abortion and reproductive health will never go away as an issue for women. I am still amazed at how so many political hacks and pundits were positive that the more time passed since the Dobb’s decision that the issue would fade. I have seen countless experts, on both sides of the political divide, dismiss reproductive freedom as a key issue in the last two years.
Think about that for a second. They believed that women who wake up every single day monitoring their reproductive health from taking a pill, checking their cycle, having their period, or worrying about getting pregnant every single time they have intercourse would somehow forget that in 17 states they won’t be able to do a damn thing about it if they get pregnant. That’s before we talk about how these same zealots are now talking about outlawing contraceptives.
So, no. Women aren’t “moving on” and neither should Democrats. Reproductive freedom doesn’t’ know party lines. It’s not a niche issue.
Reasonable Gun Safety: 83% support
The majority of Americans support the 2nd Amendment. That’s a fact, but, they also are horrified by the mass slaughter being unleashed on us everywhere from schools, to theaters, to even bowling alleys now. It’s become clear to everyone who isn’t paid by gun manufacturers and the gun lobby that reasonable limits on this right are needed.
There is no way to ignore that the number one killer of American children are guns. With Veterans Day coming up we also know that 75% of veteran suicides are by firearm. This is something that touches every single American.
The numbers are staggering in every poll. This one from April was run by Fox News of registered voters is clear:
87% of Americans support requiring criminal background checks on all gun buyers, including 83% support from gun owning households
81% of Americans support improving enforcement of existing gun laws, including
81% of Americans support raising the legal age to buy a gun to 21, including 76% of gun owning households
80% of Americans support allowing police to take guns from those considered a danger to themselves or others, also known as Red Flag laws, including 76% of gun owning households
61% of Americans support banning assault rifles and semi-automatic weapons, including 50% support from gun owning households
The far-right will always paint opponents as “gun grabbers” or trying to take away your 2nd Amendment Right. They are lying. Americans just want reasonable measures.
Everyone knows that to operate a car, which my World War II veteran father always called a “deadly weapon,” you need training, insurance, registration, and there penalties if you operate it unsafely. When this many people want something you’re a fool to ignore it.
Red flag laws especially make sense as the right always likes to claim we have a mental health problem not a gun problem. Great…so when someone has a mental health problem it’s reasonable to secure their weapons, right?
Don’t let them shout you down. We see the bloody results of ignoring this super majority.
Unions and Labor Organizing: 71% Support
Unions and organized labor are having a moment. This has always been a Democratic issue but since the pandemic and the 2008 recession millions of average Americans are seeing their wages flatten, benefits cut, and issues ignored as the rich get richer. The recent spate of strikes, which the right decried, have all paid off in big ways for the union members from UAW to SAG-AFTRA, which finally ended just last night.
Average Americans are watching and agree. The most recent polling was on August 29th and it shows some fascinating tidbits.
Labor union support transcends party lines: About 91% of Democrats, 69% of independents and 52% of Republicans approve of unions, according to the poll.
Americans support better wages and benefits for workers: Three-fourths of Americans support “workers going on strike to negotiate for better wages, benefits, and working conditions” with nearly half saying they strongly support doing so.
Young people support the labor movement: Voters under 30 show wide support for labor unions. 88% percent approve of unions and 90% say they support strikes.
Unions are seen as highly desirable and half of Americans believe having more workers in unions would be beneficial for society: About half of voters say society would be better off with a union compared to just a third (34%) saying it would not be better off.
Voters say unions have a positive impact on workers and on the economy: Over three-quarters believe unions have a positive effect on safety, pay, hours, job security, and benefits for workers.
Those are overwhelming numbers and I continue to be struck by the words of a UAW member on the picket line the first week of the strike;
“We just want to be middle class again.”
What a remarkable perspective and one that many Americans share as they see employees treated like disposable parts of the companies they work for.
This is no longer a “Democratic” issue. It’s one of class and economics. They see Republicans bending over backwards to reward their billionaire donors and corporate PAC supporters while dismissing the concerns of average people. Democrats must continue to pound the message that they are on the side of the working class and not the billionaires.
Bottom Line
These are winning issues that cross party lines. Candidates and campaigns should be pounding where they stand and holding their Republican opponents feet to the fire. Make them admit they don’t care what the overwhelming number of their citizens want. As always we win when we fight. We win when we do the hard work. It’s not on social media. It’s knocking doors. Putting up signs. Going to town halls. Supporting the brave people who step up to run.
Join Me and Rachel Vindman Tonight
I am excited to join my dear friend Rachel tonight on her Substack community for a little celebratory chat about the recent election and what’s to come. Here is the Zoom info.
Please join us for some schadenfreude and a nice chat.
More info here!
Thursday, November 9 at 8 ET. Zoom details below.
Topic: Rachel Vindman + Fred Wellman Substack Chat
Time: Nov 9, 2023 08:00 PM Eastern Time (US and Canada)
Join Zoom Meeting
https://us02web.zoom.us/j/89932628040?pwd=cEw0UnYwemhuVjdTemNTNjV6UmZMQT09
Thank you
Thank you so much again for being part of this community. I’m excited to see so many new faces and as always I’d appreciate if you considered upgrading to a paid subscription. While we will have special events and posts just for you in the end it helps me do my work as a freelance pundit.
Will do my best to watch you and Rachel tonight, but I am getting my son from college, so it's a bit dicey. Will it be recorded (hope so!)?
I'm surprised that the NY Times headline on Wednesday wasn't: "Why the Democrats won so big on Tuesday..............and why that's terrible news for President Biden".