We are winning
Also, Trump is totally a fascist...I mean...come on.
The weave
See how I did that? I’ve been studying the master himself on how to create wide ranging nonsensical word salads and tie them together in no way whatsoever and then call them “the weave.”
I am smart like that.
I’m kidding…that’s not a thing and Trump is an idiot. But, he’s also a fascist and that’s not me saying that. I mean, yeah, I say it all the time and have for 9 years, but it’s also all of the people that worked for him and what he promises to do this time.
A number of stories came out that this week quoting former Trump Chief-of-Staff John Kelly, former Chairman of the Joint Chiefs Mark Milley, and many others that highlight the autocratic desires of Trump when they served him and how he will execute those fantasies if given the chance thanks to a lack of adults in the room next time and the help of the Roberts Supreme Court.
He can’t get back in the White House.
How we win
But that’s not the story is it? We are nine days out from the election and the end game is afoot. I wrote about it last night on social media and wanted to expand on it this morning. There are three main reasons I am confident that Kamala Harris and Tim Walz are going to bring this win home and Trump and the Republicans are going to fall flat on their faces:
Ground Game
Closing Message
Momentum
Ground Game
The Republicans and Trump don’t have one. When she took over the Republican National Party the first act of Lara Trump was to nuke all the building the RNC had done for voter outreach across the country. They mocked the idea of field offices and minority outreach. That was monumentally stupid.
On top of that Trump has torched all of the money he’s raised on lawyers. Literally some $85 million a month has been spent on lawyers. Those are both to defend him and go around the country filing frivolous lawsuits they keep losing. The lawyers get paid either way.
They simply ignored the entire concept of ground game thinking rallies and transphobic ads were enough. They aren’t. Politics hasn’t changed so much that people knocking doors, making calls, organizing voter drives, and things like pews to the polls, etc. don’t matter. Believe me they do and they do in this last week and a a half.
Do you really think these marching bands leading college students to vote happened spontaneously? No! It’s on the ground organizing. Here is the North Carolina University ‘Soar to the Polls’ march October 19th.
The Republicans have got Elon Musk desperately throwing money into a bonfire through his new PAC that he is the only donor to with paid canvassers that are ripping him off. Numerous stories came out showing they aren’t knocking the doors and have no skin in the game. They aren’t true believers. They aren’t convincing anyone.
In the last ten days…it’s all about turn out…turn out is a ground game…Trump has zero ground game.
Advantage Harris and the Democrats because they invested in it.
Closing Message
Harris and Walz are flooding the zone with their messaging on their main issues from Trump’s fascism and protecting democracy to women’s reproductive health. They are holding rallies focused on each issue with experts, voters, and celebrities. They have a clear plan and they are methodically hitting it point by point.
On the other hand Trump…not so much. I mean, t\his week Trump shit on Michigan…in Michigan…twice! He called America a “garbage can.” He attacked Beyoncé! He also has appeared to settle on a key message that the real enemies of America are within including promises to turn the military on us.
All of this is while his clown show of surrogates like Musk are telling people things are going to be bad when he gets elected to “fix” things. He’s got the Flynn fascim tour out urging states to just ignore the voters and select their own electors for Trump on election night.
His weird ass Vice Presidential nominee is a fascist dipshit who keeps saying odd stuff like his wife isn’t white but he loves her anyway and referring to their children as “her kids.” That’s before we talk about the fact Melania and Vance’s wife Usha are nowhere to be seen on the campaign trail.
I’m sorry but if a dude can’t even get his own wife to hang out with him on the campaign trail then none of us should either. Their entire closing message is an incoherent goat rodeo of stupidity up against a machine running on all cylinders.
Advantage Harris and the Democrats because they have a plan and are executing it.
Momentum
The Democrats have it. There is passion. There is fire. Vice President Harris is running a series of rallies highlighting different issues that have become must see TV! She had easily over 4 million viewers on Twitter alone for each of her last three rallies.
The Democrats have an absolute flood of surrogates filling events from celebrities to the Obamas and elected officials from across the country focusing on their states. Governor Josh Shapiro has been a machine in Pennsylvania while Brian Kemp held a get out the vote event in Georgia Friday with like 30 people in the whole park.
Trump is falling apart before our eyes. He is canceling interviews, showing up hours late for rallies, rambling incoherently, and bragging about it because some idiot told him he’s doing the “weave” when he’s really a mentally ill idiot who can’t complete a thought. He’s having a rally at Madison Square Garden with the longest list of freaks and nutjobs imaginable from Rudy Giuliani to famed comedian Kill Tony…but not a single member of Congress or candidate from New York except pathetic Elise Stefanik.
You don’t have to be psychic to feel they are limping into the finale. Hell, take his own word for it. He has been saying how beautiful and sad it is that after nine years the MAGA movement is coming to an end. People who are winning don’t say things like that to their own followers.
On the other side the Harris-Walz campaign is an express train of joy, organization, money, and good policies. Her rallies are filling giant stadiums and literally have thousands outside watching on screens. Even surrogates are filling events and spreading joy and fire.
That’s before we talk about the insane turnout from women at the early voting sites. Nationally it’s running some 55 to 45 women to men. That’s not an anomaly and it tracks with every election we’ve seen since Dobbs. I am convinced that the polling firms are missing this and not adjusting their models at all for the women vote because they can’t. Nothing has galvanized so many like this and they simply can’t adjust.
We’re not done yet
Having said all of that I urge you to ignore the polls. Work to turn people out. Keep pushing. Vote early if able. Talk to your friends and family about voting. Keep fighting until the clock hits zero. If we do the work it will be over election night. Donald Trump is running to stay out of jail. We are fighting for our future. I like our odds better than theirs in every possible way.
New show and Livestreams Coming
My show this week is from the new and improved home studio. I will return to our usual studio next week hopefully but it’s been so crazy I haven’t had time to sort it all out so I go to the back up.
Be sure to subscribe to our YouTube channel. I will be starting regular livestream shows on the On Democracy Podcast channel as well as other social networks. You can ask me questions and catch up on my thoughts. Would love to have you join me.
Thank you for all of your support.
Fred
Please repeatedly post "not suckers or losers" comments in social media. According to Facebook, there are 4 million veterans and active duty members on Facebook, as well as 12.5 million family members and 242 million friends with veterans or active duty members. Military sites, veterans' organizations, historical sites.
It seems like every election cycle - big, little, local, national - common sense seems like such a rare and supernatural power, we're astounded by simple shit like:
"I dunno if a felon out on bail, convicted of serious financial crimes, should have the keys to the national treasury."
The officials lining up, howling in support, probably shouldn't be in civil service.
I mean, you can have your most intensely held religious beliefs, but not as a basis for letting greedy people be one click away from taking your home.